chapter Welcome; scene; Start; selectPlayer 100004; showText "Welcome to FanHandle, the Web’s FIRST fully interactive fantasy football prediction builder! This tutorial will show you how to create unique projections that you can use to dominate your fantasy league."; scene; Start2; showText "Use the "Again" and "Next" buttons to navigate through the tutorial. Click "Next" to find out more about the tool, or "Again" to repeat a section. Use the Table of Contents to jump to a section. We hope you find this helpful, and thank you for taking the time to have a look."; chapter Overview; scene; PlayerOptionsIntro; showText ""; pause 500; showText "The free version of FanHandle, which you are looking at now, is made up of four sections:"; pause 5000; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 145, 284, 193, 191; globalHighlight; showText "The Player Options section lets you choose which player you wish to project, and shows you projected fantasy points for the selected player."; scene; GraphOptionsIntro; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 5, 284, 140, 191; globalHighlight; showText "The Graph Options section lets you determine which graph you are looking at.

Don't panic - we'll explain how all these work in more detail in a little bit."; scene; ProjectionGraphIntro; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 50, 70, 400, 190; globalHighlight; showText "The Projection Graph shows you historical data, as well as a visual representation of the fantasy projections you'll be building in a few moments."; scene; ProjectionVariablesIntro; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 338, 284, 193, 191; globalHighlight; showText "The Projection Variables section is where you will create the mastermind formulae used to generate the projections that will separate you from your competition.
Go ahead - mess with it! We'll explain more later."; chapter Player Options; scene; CurrentPlayer; showText "Let's start looking at how to actually use the tool."; pause 4000; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 145, 284, 193, 191; globalHighlight; showText "Welcome back to the Player Options section."; pause 5000; showText ""; pause 500; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 150, 308, 180, 40; globalHighlight; showText "Here, you can see the name of the player you’re working with – in this case, Joseph Addai."; scene; CurrentProjections; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 150, 350, 180, 40; globalHighlight; showText "The 'Next Week' box shows you what Addai is currently projected to score in the next NFL week. The 'Remaining 2009' box shows the total fantasy points Addai is projected to score for the remainder of the 2009 season, not including any games already played."; scene; SelectNewPlayer; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 150, 390, 182, 40; globalHighlight; showText "The "Select a New Player" area allows you to type in any part of a player’s name to find the player you want to look at next."; pause 6000; showText ""; pause 500; unhighlight; showText "To see how this works, click inside the Player box, and slowly type the name 'John'. Notice how the player list filters your choices down to players whose names have 'John' in either their first or last name. To select a player from the list, click on his name."; scene; Warning; showText "Note that as you just found out, this is a fully functioning demo you're working with - live ammo! You can choose to completely ignore the tutorial if you like, but we think it will make a lot more sense if you try to follow along. Your call."; chapter Graph Options; scene; GraphOptions; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 5, 284, 140, 191; globalHighlight; showText "Now that you can choose players, let's learn about the Graph Options area."; pause 4000; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 15, 310, 125, 70; globalHighlight; showText "The "Projection Choices" area lets you choose which graph to show up top: Points per Touch, Touches or Points."; pause 6000; showText ""; pause 500; unhighlight; showText "Pay attention - this part is important. At FanHandle, passes, rushes, receptions, FG attempts and plays against (for team defenses) all count as "Touches". Select "Touches" in the Projection Choices area to change the graph to show Touches."; scene; ProjectionChoices; showText "Projecting Touches is a huge part of projecting fantasy points. The other part is projecting Points per Touch (PPT), or how many fantasy points a player will get on average with each Touch. Click Points per Touch in the Projection Choices area to see the PPT graph."; scene; Points; showText "Select the Points graph next. Note that the sliders won't move while you are looking at the Points graph. Our formula says that Points = Points Per Touch * Touches. You can project Points per Touch, and you can project Touches. "Points" is merely the outcome."; scene; ProjectUsing; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 15, 380, 125, 50; globalHighlight; showText "When you get to building your projections, what you are doing is looking at historic performance and using it to predict what will happen in the future. Use this dropdown to select how many weeks of historic performance to include in your calculations."; scene; ScoringType; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 15, 430, 125, 40; globalHighlight; showText "We're building scoring customization for those of you who are playing by your own rules. In the meantime, the other 98% of you can choose from one of these popular fantasy scoring systems, all of which we equally recommend."; chapter Reading the Graph; scene; ProjectionGraphSelect; unhighlight; showText "Now that you know how to change the data that goes into the projection, let's look at the output - the graph. Use your skills to select LaDanian Tomlinson and choose his Points per Touch (PPT) graph, and we'll explain what the lines mean."; scene; ProjectionGraphRedLine; showText "The red line shows LT's weekly Points per Touch in 2008. Move your mouse over one of the data points (dots on the graph) to see who the opponent was, whether it was home/away, what kind of turf it was, etc. That dip in Week 9 was the Chargers' bye week."; scene; ProjectionGraphLightBlueLine; showText "The Light Blue line on the right side of the graph shows your weekly projections for 2009. This will change as you adjust the sliders. For kicks, find the OS slider in the Projection Variables and push it all the way up if you don't believe us."; scene; ProjectionGraphDarkBlueLine; showText "While you play around with the sliders, you'll notice the Dark Blue line on the left moves as well. The Dark Blue Line shows you what your formula would have projected LT would do each week in 2008 if you travelled back in time. Click Next when you're done playing."; scene; AvgError; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 414, 246, 193, 40; globalHighlight; showText "This number is important. You know that the Red Line shows actual 2008 information, and the Dark Blue line shows what your formula would have projected in 2008. Well, Avg Error tells you how close your projection was to being correct. Lower = Better."; scene; PlayAroundMore; unhighlight; showText "Spend a little bit of time messing around with the sliders, and watch how they impact the graph and the Avg Error and projection numbers. Try to get that Avg Error as low as you can. When you're ready, click Next and we'll explain what those sliders are actually doing."; chapter Projection Variables; scene; OverallAverage; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 338, 284, 193, 191; globalHighlight; moveSlider playerAvg,15; moveSlider homeFieldAdv,0; moveSlider grassArtAdv,0; moveSlider oppStrength,0; clickPPT; showText "The Projection Variables graph is made up of four "sliders", which we will use to create a projection for LaDanian Tomlinson."; pause 5500; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 340, 305, 38, 165; globalHighlight; showText "This is the Overall Average slider. It represents the average of all the data points we are looking at (Tomlinson's average PPT for all 17 weeks of 2008). The number 15 at the bottom indicates the amount of weight we are giving the Overall Average in the equation."; scene; HomeVsAway1; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 378, 305, 35, 165; globalHighlight; showText "The Home/Away slider is a bit more complex. If you average LT's Points per Touch in home games and his PPT in away games, you'll get two different numbers. This *can* be helpful in predicting his performance in home or away games in the future."; scene; HomeVsAway2; showText "Moving this slider up means that you want your projection algorithm for Tomlinson's PPT to rely on that Home vs Away difference more heavily. Moving it down again says you don't want to factor it in as much as the other sliders. Leaving it at 0 says you want to ignore it altogether."; scene; HomeVsAway3; showText "As you use the tool more, you'll see that different NFL players have different things that make them tick. This is something very important to us. We think it is ridiculous to apply one formula equally to all NFL players when building projections. But enough about us."; scene; GrassVsTurf; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 413, 305, 35, 165; globalHighlight; showText "The same way players play differently Home vs Away, they also play differently on grass vs turf. This slider lets you decide if that's important in your algorithm. Note that you can "bump" sliders up or down one point by clicking the buttons at the top and bottom of the slider."; scene; OpponentStrength1; makeGlobalHighlightBoxStep 450, 305, 35, 165; globalHighlight; showText "The Opponent Strength slider works a little differently. The first three sliders work together to build a projection by applying their numbers in a ratio that you define with the sliders. This slider manipulates the projection by the strength of the opponent."; scene; OpponentStrength2; showText "For example, Denver had a terrible rushing defense in 2008 (sorry, Broncos fans - this is not news to you, though). Pushing this slider up means that we will raise LT's PPT projections vs DEN, and we will lower his projection vs the Ravens."; scene; OpponentStrength3; showText "These adjustments are mathematical based on what each team allowed players of similar positions to acheive in 2008. For Tomlinson, a 1st string RB, this slider essentially says "Augment the projection by what teams allowed first-string running backs to accomplish in '08."; chapter Walkthrough Demo; scene; StartDemo; unhighlight; setScoringType YAHOO.com; setLookback 17; clickPPT; showText "Alright, Ace - look around the tool, mouse over things and mentally steel yourself to put everything you've learned together to see what makes a *good* projection. We'll go easy on you and stick with Tomlinson, since you're pretty familiar with him by now."; scene; ExampleOne; showText "You have undoubtedly messed up the sliders considerably already. To reset them, type Tomlinson's name in the Player box and select him again. Then click on Points per Touch in Projection Choices to select that graph if you'd switched it."; scene; ExampleTwo; showText "Grab the Home/Away slider and start moving it up. You'll notice that the Avg Error keeps going down. This is good. Max Home/Away out at 60. Then try Grass/Artificial Turf (G/A). Moving this up makes the Error go higher, which is bad. Leave this one at zero."; scene; ExampleThree; showText "Before you go to the Opponent Strength (OS) slider, remember that we told you the first three sliders built a ratio. To prove this is true, note with Overall Average (OA) at 15 and H/A at 60, the Avg Error is 0.213. If you set OA to 1 and H/A to 4, Avg Error would still be 0.213"; scene; ExampleFour; showText "The nice thing about going with a 15:60 ratio is that you can refine it more precisely. If you set OA to 13 and H/A to 60, you can get Avg Error down to .212! Remember to "bump" the sliders up and down to fine tune if needed. 0.212 feels lots better than 0.213"; scene; ExampleFive; showText "As great as it feels to get that Avg Error from .213 to .212, you're going to love what happens when you move the Opponent Strength slider. Slide it and bump it around until you get Avg Error as low as possible. Keep an eye on the graphs, they're interesting."; scene; ExampleSix; showText "We were able to get Avg Error to 0.184 by setting the sliders at: 13, 60, 0 and 30 respectively. We're not too happy that there was a 3 week stretch of '08 where our projections would have been a little off, but if projections were perfect, we'd call them prophecies."; scene; ExampleSeven; showText "Now that we're happy with LT's Points per Touch projections, select "Touches" on the Projection Choices. Projecting Touches is done the same way as projecting PPT, with the major difference being that we're projecting how a team distributes the ball to its players."; scene; ExampleEight; showText "Move the sliders around until Avg Error is as low as you can make it (we'll tell you our result when you hit Next, so you can compare). Remember, we're projecting how many times the Chargers will utilize their 1st string RB at this point."; scene; ExampleNine; showText "Excellent. We put the sliders at: 60, 43, 44 and 0 to get an Avg Error of exactly 2.00. This means that while LT got the ball anywhere from 12 to 30 times in '08, this algorithm was only off by an average of 2 touches per game."; scene; ExampleTen; showText "Select the Points graph to see what you've projected for LT. You can see in Avg Error that this formula missed by an average of 4.4 fantasy points per week. The graph shows you that most of those points came during a 3 weeks stretch of underperformance."; scene; ExampleEleven; showText "The formula nailed about 9 weeks last year. Not bad. Mousing over the Light Blue 2009 projections shows you how many points this same formula predicts LT to get each week. You may want to get a pen and write these down somewhere."; chapter Learn More; scene; WhatElse; showText "The premium version of our tool, launching in August 2009, will allow you to save your algorithms, so you don't have to set them up again every time you want to look. It will also let you see a list of projection results, in case you want to see more than one at a time."; scene; WhatElseTwo; showText "Click on "Learn How" any time you like to find out more about our premium tool. In the meantime... congratulations on finishing the demo!"; scene; ThankYou; showText "Please be sure to thank the site you found us on for carrying our tool! If you have any feedback regarding the tool or this demo, or any questions, please contact us at contact@fanhandle.com"; scene; Finish; showText "Click 'Next' to restart the tutorial, or visit http://www.fanhandle.com to add your email address to receive notifications about updates or new offerings from FanHandle. Thanks for taking the time to learn about our Fantasy Projection Builder tool."; scene; ReallyFinish;